AEMB: A Deterministic Cross-Language Verification Benchmark for Event-Margin Protocols
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN
Axient Research
SSRN · DOI
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Maksym Nechepurenko is the founder and Director of Research at ForesightFlow.
His current research programme covers:
- Real-time detection of informed trading using microstructure signals adapted for binary CLOB markets
- AI forecasting agent evaluation on live prediction markets using proper scoring rules
- On-chain forensic methods for wallet attribution and cluster detection
- Mechanism design for manipulation-resistant prediction market infrastructure
He leads the development of ForesightFlow's open research infrastructure, including the FFIC insider cases dataset, the Foresight Arena benchmark protocol, and the fflow Python toolkit.
Previously, he worked on quantitative research and technology across traditional finance and crypto markets.
Contributions
Preprint
AVET: A Provenance-Aware Venue Emulator Trace Dataset for Event Markets
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN
Axient Research
SSRN · DOI
Axient: On-Chain Credit and Loss Allocation for Leveraged Event Markets: A Venue-Agnostic Protocol for Traders, Credit Providers, Market Makers, and Liquidation Backstops
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
Axient Research
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
Axient: Debt-Free Finality for Leveraged Binary Event Markets
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
Axient Research
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
Axient: Empirical Calibration of Venue-Agnostic Event-Margin Protocols: A Prospectively Frozen Analysis Plan, Deterministic Internal-Alpha Technical Pilot, and Venue-Emulator Methodology
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN
Axient Research
SSRN · DOI
Coordination as an Architectural Layer for LLM-Based Multi-Agent Systems: An Information-Controlled Empirical Study on Prediction Markets
Maksym Nechepurenko, Pavel Shuvalov · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
Empirical Evaluation of Deadline-Resolved Information Leakage on Documented Polymarket Insider Cases
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
Event-Spread Perpetuals under Asynchronous Finality: Joint-State Risk, Residual Exposure, and Settlement Design
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN
Event-Linked Perpetuals
SSRN · DOI
Fill-Side Non-Retail Trading on Polymarket: Identification Limits, Behavioral Tiers, and Microstructure Signatures
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
Event-Linked Perpetuals
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
Foresight Arena: An On-Chain Benchmark for Evaluating AI Forecasting Agents
Maksym Nechepurenko, Pavel Shuvalov · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
ForesightFlow: An Information Leakage Score Framework for Prediction Markets
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
ForesightFlow: Real-Time Detection of Informed Trading in Decentralized Prediction Markets
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN
SSRN · DOI
Information Leakage at Population Scale: An Evaluation of the Polymarket Insider-Relevant Subpopulation, 2020-2026
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
On-Demand Combinatorial Event Markets on Kalshi: Instantiation, Concentration, and Effective Market Breadth
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN
Event-Linked PerpetualsKalshi Research
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
From Public Evidence to Contractual Outcome: First and Stable Decidability on Kalshi
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN
Event-Linked PerpetualsKalshi Research
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
Outcome Determination and Settlement Finality on Kalshi: Public State Paths, Prospective Measurement, and Empirical Identification
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN
Event-Linked PerpetualsKalshi Research
SSRN · DOI
Price Discovery at the Boundary of Contractual Decidability: Terminal-Value Gaps, Trading Availability, and Venue Finality on Kalshi
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN
Event-Linked PerpetualsKalshi Research
SSRN · DOI
Manipulation, Informed Trading, and Regulation in Leveraged Event-Linked Markets
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
Event-Linked Perpetuals
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
Per-Market Information Leakage and Order-Flow Skill: Two Methodological Lenses on Informed Trading in Decentralized Prediction Markets
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
Price as Focal Point: Prediction Markets, Conditional Reflexivity, and the Politics of Common Knowledge
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
Resolution-Aware Perpetual Futures on Binary Prediction Markets: Failure Modes and Mechanical Stress Tests Using Polymarket Data
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
Event-Linked Perpetuals
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
Resolution Is Not Settlement, Part I: Oracle Adjudication and Semantic Governance on Polymarket
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
Event-Linked Perpetuals
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
Resolution Is Not Settlement, Part II: Protocol Finality and Observed Redemption on Polymarket
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
Event-Linked Perpetuals
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
The Signal Credibility Index for Prediction Markets: A Microstructure-Grounded Diagnostic with Weighted and Time-Varying Extensions
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
State-Triggered Margin and Conditional-Token Conversion for Event-Linked Perpetual Futures
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN
Event-Linked Perpetuals
SSRN · DOI
A Taxonomy of Event-Linked Perpetual Futures: Design Axes, Failure Modes, and Empirical Evaluability
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
Event-Linked Perpetuals
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
Two Models of Event Finality: Functional Alignment, Contestability, and Empirical Comparability on Polymarket and Kalshi
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN
Event-Linked PerpetualsKalshi Research
SSRN · DOI