Resolution-Aware Perpetual Futures on Binary Prediction Markets: Failure Modes and Mechanical Stress Tests Using Polymarket Data

We study whether crypto-style perpetual-futures mechanics can be applied to a binary event claim that ultimately pays 0 or 1. A synthetic long entered with leverage has an adverse-outcome account shortfall under specified survival conditions, independent of the pre-resolution mark. We also derive a funding trilemma: basis-only funding loses relative force near a boundary, while uniform relative-basis correction requires unbounded transfers and conflicts with payer solvency or participation. A mechanical stress test of observed Polymarket paths from 21–27 April 2026 retains 13,298 of 61,087 enriched candidate markets after adequacy gates. Two structural diagnostics pass, but three of five pre-specified materiality tests fail. The contribution is a corrected non-portability analysis, a reusable observed-path replay design, and negative design lessons; the results do not establish equilibrium performance or deployment safety.