ForesightFlow: Real-Time Detection of Informed Trading in Decentralized Prediction Markets

Decentralized prediction markets such as Polymarket aggregate dispersed beliefs into continuously updated price signals, but their on-chain transparency and pseudonymous participation also make them an unusually fertile environment for informed trading on material non-public information. We propose ForesightFlow, a real-time detection framework that combines classical microstructure measures of informed trading with on-chain wallet features unique to decentralized platforms. We introduce the Information Leakage Score (ILS), which quantifies how much of a market's terminal information move was priced in before the corresponding public news event, and release the ForesightFlow Insider Cases inventory. A pilot evaluation tightens the methodology through scope conditions for ILS and an extension for deadline-resolved contracts. On a clean U.S.–Iran case, deadline-ILS shifts from −0.331 at the resolution-anchored proxy to +0.113 at the article-derived event timestamp, showing that the extension distinguishes signal from proxy artefact. System code, the FFIC inventory, and a resolution-typology classification of the 911,237-market corpus are released openly.