We develop wallet clustering, funding-flow analysis, novelty scoring, and cross-market behavior methods to attribute trades to economic agents rather than pseudonymous addresses.
Every trade on Polymarket leaves a permanent, public record. The challenge is not access — it is interpretation. Pseudonymous addresses, mixing services, and multi-wallet strategies create noise that requires structured forensic methods to resolve.
Our approach treats on-chain data as a graph problem: wallets are nodes, transactions and funding flows are edges. Cluster membership, centrality, and cross-market co-occurrence tell a story that raw address data cannot.
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
Axient Research
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN
SSRN · DOI
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN
Event-Linked PerpetualsKalshi Research
SSRN · DOI
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN
Event-Linked PerpetualsKalshi Research
SSRN · DOI
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
Event-Linked Perpetuals
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
Event-Linked Perpetuals
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN
Event-Linked Perpetuals
SSRN · DOI
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
Event-Linked PerpetualsKalshi Research
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
A curated validation set mapping eight publicly documented episodes of suspected informed trading on Polymarket to concrete on-chain market identifiers. Cases span 2023–2026 and cover 24 individual markets across military and geopolitical actions, corporate proprietary disclosures, and regulatory decisions.