Manipulation, Informed Trading, and Regulation in Leveraged Event-Linked Markets

Leverage does not create manipulation or informed trading in event markets, but it changes their economics. We separate market-price manipulation, real-world outcome manipulation, resolution-process manipulation, and informed trading that exploits non-public information without changing the event or resolution rule. A capital-constrained amplification model shows that gross directional gains scale with financed exposure while information, influence, concealment, execution, and enforcement costs need not scale proportionally. Historical-path replay identifies mechanical rule channels, not equilibrium conduct; fill-side address data support concentration analysis but not address-level spoofing or quote-withdrawal claims. The regulatory contribution is a functions-first framework covering product authorization, market-integrity surveillance, event-influence controls, resolution governance, and loss-bearing capital. Legal status remains product- and jurisdiction-specific.