AEMB: A Deterministic Cross-Language Verification Benchmark for Event-Margin Protocols
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN
Axient Research
SSRN · DOI
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Mechanism design
We study how prediction market rules — resolution typology, oracle design, and trading constraints — affect price accuracy, manipulation resistance, and the quality of the information aggregated.
What we ask
- —How does resolution mechanism type affect the calibration of final market prices?
- —What oracle designs minimize the risk of resolution manipulation on contentious markets?
- —Can market structure modifications reduce the profitability of informed trading without harming price discovery?
- —How do trading fee structures interact with market maker behavior and liquidity provision?
How we approach it
- —Resolution typology classification of large-scale Polymarket data
- —Game-theoretic analysis of oracle manipulation incentives
- —Empirical calibration analysis by resolution mechanism category
- —Simulation of alternative fee and access-control regimes
A prediction market is only as good as its rules. The resolution mechanism determines whether prices reflect genuine beliefs or strategic manipulation. The oracle design determines who can influence outcomes and at what cost. The fee structure determines who participates.
These are mechanism design questions with real stakes: misconfigured markets have cost participants money and eroded trust in the whole asset class. Getting the mechanism right is not merely academic.
Publications in this track
Preprint
AVET: A Provenance-Aware Venue Emulator Trace Dataset for Event Markets
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN
Axient Research
SSRN · DOI
Axient: On-Chain Credit and Loss Allocation for Leveraged Event Markets: A Venue-Agnostic Protocol for Traders, Credit Providers, Market Makers, and Liquidation Backstops
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
Axient Research
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
Axient: Debt-Free Finality for Leveraged Binary Event Markets
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
Axient Research
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
Axient: Empirical Calibration of Venue-Agnostic Event-Margin Protocols: A Prospectively Frozen Analysis Plan, Deterministic Internal-Alpha Technical Pilot, and Venue-Emulator Methodology
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN
Axient Research
SSRN · DOI
Coordination as an Architectural Layer for LLM-Based Multi-Agent Systems: An Information-Controlled Empirical Study on Prediction Markets
Maksym Nechepurenko, Pavel Shuvalov · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
Event-Spread Perpetuals under Asynchronous Finality: Joint-State Risk, Residual Exposure, and Settlement Design
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN
Event-Linked Perpetuals
SSRN · DOI
Foresight Arena: An On-Chain Benchmark for Evaluating AI Forecasting Agents
Maksym Nechepurenko, Pavel Shuvalov · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
On-Demand Combinatorial Event Markets on Kalshi: Instantiation, Concentration, and Effective Market Breadth
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN
Event-Linked PerpetualsKalshi Research
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
From Public Evidence to Contractual Outcome: First and Stable Decidability on Kalshi
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN
Event-Linked PerpetualsKalshi Research
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
Outcome Determination and Settlement Finality on Kalshi: Public State Paths, Prospective Measurement, and Empirical Identification
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN
Event-Linked PerpetualsKalshi Research
SSRN · DOI
Price Discovery at the Boundary of Contractual Decidability: Terminal-Value Gaps, Trading Availability, and Venue Finality on Kalshi
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN
Event-Linked PerpetualsKalshi Research
SSRN · DOI
Manipulation, Informed Trading, and Regulation in Leveraged Event-Linked Markets
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
Event-Linked Perpetuals
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
Price as Focal Point: Prediction Markets, Conditional Reflexivity, and the Politics of Common Knowledge
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
State-Triggered Margin and Conditional-Token Conversion for Event-Linked Perpetual Futures
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN
Event-Linked Perpetuals
SSRN · DOI
Two Models of Event Finality: Functional Alignment, Contestability, and Empirical Comparability on Polymarket and Kalshi
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN
Event-Linked PerpetualsKalshi Research
SSRN · DOI
Datasets
FFIC — ForesightFlow Insider Cases
A curated validation set mapping eight publicly documented episodes of suspected informed trading on Polymarket to concrete on-chain market identifiers. Cases span 2023–2026 and cover 24 individual markets across military and geopolitical actions, corporate proprietary disclosures, and regulatory decisions.