Two Models of Event Finality: Functional Alignment, Contestability, and Empirical Comparability on Polymarket and Kalshi
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN
Event-Linked PerpetualsKalshi Research
SSRN · DOI
Publications
AllAxient ResearchMechanism designEvent-linked PerpsForecasting & AIOn-chain forensicsMicrostructureQuant strategies
Preprint
State-Triggered Margin and Conditional-Token Conversion for Event-Linked Perpetual Futures
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN
Event-Linked Perpetuals
SSRN · DOI
Resolution Is Not Settlement, Part II: Protocol Finality and Observed Redemption on Polymarket
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
Event-Linked Perpetuals
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
Resolution Is Not Settlement, Part I: Oracle Adjudication and Semantic Governance on Polymarket
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
Event-Linked Perpetuals
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
Empirical Evaluation of Deadline-Resolved Information Leakage on Documented Polymarket Insider Cases
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
ForesightFlow: An Information Leakage Score Framework for Prediction Markets
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
Information Leakage at Population Scale: An Evaluation of the Polymarket Insider-Relevant Subpopulation, 2020-2026
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN / arXiv
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · arXiv DOI
ForesightFlow: Real-Time Detection of Informed Trading in Decentralized Prediction Markets
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Preprint · SSRN
SSRN · DOI